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Welcome to the Chicago Herald-American, a weblog founded, written, edited, produced and directed by Chicago Sun-Times reporter/copy editor Mark Potash. A Chicago native and graduate of Niles West High School in Skokie, Ill. and the University of Missouri-Columbia, Mark is a veteran of three newspaper wars, with a record of 1-1-1 -- winning with the Arkansas Democrat (Little Rock, Ark.), losing with the St. Louis Globe-Democrat and fighting the good fight with the Sun-Times since 1987.

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Monday
Mar012010

Starlin Castro? I'll believe it when I see it

 

Starlin Castro ... Josh Vitters ... Brett Jackson. I haven't been this excited about the Cubs' farm system since 2004, when Angel Guzman was the best of six Cubs minor-leaguers ranked among Baseball America's Top 100 prospects. With Mark Prior and Kerry Wood at the head of the starting rotation, the Cubs' farm system finally had ended years of drought, and was ready to produce a core of home-grown players that would keep the Cubs in contention for years without having to overpay for free agents. Who can forget Guzman (No. 26), Justin Jones (No. 56), Ryan Harvey (No. 65), Andrew Sisco (No. 77), Felix Pie (No. 85) and Bobby Brownlie (No. 92)?

That was as excited as I had been since 1990, when Mike Harkey headed a list of five Cubs players among Baseball America's Top 100 prospects. With Mark Grace, Shawon Duston, Dwight Smith and Rookie of the Year Jerome Walton already producing in the big-leagues, the Cubs' farm system finally had ended years of drought, and was ready to produce a core of home-grown players that would keep the Cubs in contention for years without having to overpay for free agents. Who can forget Harkey (No. 14), Ty Griffin (No. 22), Earl Cunningham (No. 44), Rick Wilkins (No. 70) and Derrick May (No. 72)?

Here's a general rule regarding the Cubs and farm prospects: Until the Cubs produce a home-grown player who can make the All-Star team in consecutive seasons, extolling the virtues of the Cubs' farm system isn't going to fly with Cub fans. If history has taught us anything, it's that one of two things is certain regarding Cubs prospects: Either Baseball America has no clue how to rank them. Or the Cubs' have no clue how to draft them or develop them.

Even when the Cubs actually were producing home-grown talent in the 1960s, they had their share of can't-miss prospects or spring-training flashes who never panned out in Chicago: Brock Davis, Oscar Gamble and Bill North to name a few. It's a rite of spring. But lately, the Cubs have had so many disappointments that I've reached the point where I don't want to hear one thing about a Cubs prospect until he's producing in Chicago.

Even the best products of the Cubs' farm system in the last 20 years have failed to live up to their potential: Carlos Zambrano is an enigma. Kerry Wood won 71 games in eight years as a starter. Mark Prior was a Cy Young Award candidate in 2003, but couldn't stay healthy. Geovany Soto won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2008, but is closer to the next Joe Charboneau than the next Yadier Molina after slumping terribly in 2009.

That leaves Ryan Theriot as the current shining light of the Cubs' farm system. In four seasons as a Cubs prospect, he never made Baseball America's list of Top 10 Cubs prospects. 

So I'd prefer not to hear a word about Starlin Castro until he's hitting .330 and pickin' everything in sight at shortstop for the Cubs in 2011 or whenever he arrives. And I'm not holding my breath waiting for Vitters and Jackson and Co. to make it either. The Cubs have five prospects in the top 100, but only one in the top 65. The Rays have four in the top 35. Considering their record of home-grown players -- Delmon Young, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Aubrey Huff, James Shields and Dan Wheeler among them -- that's something to get excited about. 

When it comes to Cubs prospects, I'm Brooks Kieschnick-ed out. Baseball America is fine, well-respected publication. But for Cub fans, their list of top prospects over the past 20 years have produced little but false hope, disappointment and frustration. Take a look at these "Baseball America All-Stars" and you'll see what I mean: 

1. Kerry Wood -- He was the Cubs' No. 1 prospect and one of the best in baseball in 1996 (No. 16 overall), 1997 (No. 3) and 1998 (No. 4). For a brief moment in April of 1998 he actually exceeded expectations -- iIt seemed too good to be true. Ultimately, it was.

2. Corey Patterson -- Like Wood, Patterson was a three-time No. 1 Cubs prospect and, on paper anyway, seemed to be on the same career path -- ranked No. 1 in 1999 (No. 16 overall), 2000 (No. 3) and 2001 (No. 2). Like Lou Brock as a Cub outfield prospect in the early 1960s, Patterson appeared more interested in showing off his power than becoming a five-tool player. But unlike Brock never made the transition and was traded after five disappointing seasons. He hit .266 with 24 home runs and 72 RBI in 2004, but that was as good as it got. 

3. Felix Pie --  A centerfield prospect signed by the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic at age 16 in 2001, Pie became a highly rated prospect by 2003 (No. 4 among Cubs, No. 72 overall). Fearing they had rushed Patterson to the majors, the Cubs seemed determined to be patient with Pie. But that only heightened the anticipation, as Pie was ranked their No. 4 prospect in 2004 (No. 85 overall), No. 2 in 2005 (No. 31) and No. 1 in 2006 (No. 27) and 2007 (No. 49). He still ended up starting at 22, just like Patterson, but with even less success. Pie hit .215 in 2007 and .241 in 2008 before being sent to the minor leagues in mid-May. He was traded to the Orioles and hit .266 as a part-time starter in 2009.

4. Brooks Kieschnick -- A first-round draft pick in 1993 (10th overall, four spots ahead of Derrek Lee), Kieschnick was the Cubs' No. 1 prospect in 1994 (No. 44 overall) and 1995 (82nd) and was second behind Kerry Wood in 1996 (No. 47). After hitting .345 in 29 at-bats in 1996, he was the Cubs' starting left-fielder in 1997, but hit .200 in 29 games (22 starts) and was sent to the minors. Unprotected in the expansion draft in 1997, he was taken by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, but made his biggest mark in the majors as a rare pitcher/outfielder for the Brewers in 2003-04.

5. Hee Seop Choi -- Signed out of South Korea in 1999, Choi was the Cubs' No. 2 propect in 2000 (No. 77 overall), No. 3 in 2001 (No. 22 overall), No. 3 in 2002 (No. 40 overall) and No. 1 in 2003 (No. 22 overall). He split time with Eric Karros at first base early in 2003 and hit .266 with seven home runs, 21 RBIs, 23 walks and a 1.021 OPS through mid-May. But he slumped from there, lost his starting job and ended up hitting .218 with eight home runs and 28 RBI. The Cubs at least made the most of this latest disappointment, trading Choi to the Marlins for Derrek Lee after the 2003 season.

6. Juan Cruz -- A right-hander signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1997, Cruz was unheralded until 2001, when he was ranked the Cubs' No. 2 prospect (No. 17 overall). After an impressive big-league debut in September (3-1, 3.22 ERA, 39 strikeouts in 44 innings), he was ranked No. 16 overall in 2002. With exceptional "stuff," he opened the 2002 season in the  Cubs' rotation, but was 0-5 despite a 2.33 ERA in his first five starts. He wilted after that, was 1-7 when he was put in the bullpen and finished the season 3-11 with  a 3.98 ERA. After going 2-7 with a 6.05 ERA in 2003, he was traded to the Braves. Cruz has had better success since leaving the Cubs, with the Braves in 2004 (6-2, 2.75) and with the Diamondbacks in 2007 (6-1, 3.10) and 2008 (4-0, 2.61).

7. Dave Kelton -- A second-round draft pick as a third-baseman in 1998, Kelton holds the club record by being ranked among Baseball America's top 10 Cub prospects six times: 1999 (No. 10), 2000 (No. 8), 2001 (No. 7), 2002 (No. 4), 2003 (No. 9) and 2004 (No. 9). Despite that, he barely got a shot, hitting .167 (2-for-12) in 2003 and .100 (1-for-10) in 2004 and never was heard from again. 

8. Ryan Harvey -- The Cubs' first-round draft pick in 2003 (sixth overall), Harvey, a 6-5, 220-pound outfielder, was the Cubs' No. 3 prospect in 2004 (No. 65 overall) and 2005 (No. 66). He had 24 home runs and 100 RBI as a 20-year-old at Class A Peoria in 2005 and 20 home runs and 84 RBI at Class A Daytona in 2006. He still ranked among the Cubs' top-10 prospects in 2006 (No. 8) and 2007 (No. 8), but never got beyond Class AA and was released after 2008. 

9. Angel Guzman -- Big right-hander signed as a free agent in 1999 after he was released by the Royals, Guzman was the Cubs' No. 2 prospect in 2003 (No. 47 overall) and ranked No. 1 in 2004 (No. 26), No. 4 in 2005 (No. 88) and No. 4 in 2006. He was 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA in 2006, but has been good when healthy and remains a prospect with the Cubs. He was 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 2009, including a stretch of 32 appearances with a 1.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, holding opposing hitters to a .191 batting average. 

10. Ben Christensen -- Right-handed pitcher drafted by the Cubs in the first round in 1999 (No. 26 overall) came to the organization with a cloud over his head after hitting an opposing player in the eye with a warmup pitch while at Wichita State. Christensen was the Cubs' No. 5 prospect in 2000, No. 4 in 2001 (No. 37 overall) after going 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA for Class A Daytona and Class AA West Tenn. But he had arm problems after that and, though he was still the Cubs' No. 8 prospect in 2002, was released in 2004 without making it past Class AA.

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