Chicago Herald-American

Not A Defining Moment

Kyle Orton had a career day against the Lions. Who hasn't?

That's not to disparage the outstanding effort by Orton in the  Bears' 34-7 victory over the Lions on Sunday -- he was 24-for-34 for 334 yards, with two touchdown passes and no interceptions -- but rather to put it in a proper perspective: Orton is the fourth consecutive quarterback to have a career-best passer rating against the worst defense in teh NFL and one of the worst in NFL history -- following the 49ers' J.T. O'Sullivan (123.3), the Packers' Aaron Rodgers (117.0) and the Falcons' Matt Ryan (137.0).

In fact, Orton is the 13th consecutive starting quarteback to have a 100-plus passer rating against the Lions -- is that some kind of record? The last starter to play a full game and crap out against the Lions was the Bears' Brian Griese who had a 38.3 rating in a 16-7 loss to the Lions at Soldier Field. The Vikings' Tarvaris Jackson had a 110.4 rating against the Lions last year. The Cardinals' Tim Rattay threw one pass against the Lions and had a 118.8 rating. Even Craig Nall had an 87.6 rating as a replacement for Brett Favre in the regular-season finale last year.

I favored Orton getting a chance to start for the Bears before most, so I'm glad to see him succeed. But as impressive as he was Sunday, I don't think you can say he's arrived, or turned the corner or even made big strides. The Lions are so bad defensively, there's just as much of a chance Orton's performance will give him a false sense of accomplishment.

A week after beating the Lions, Matt Ryan had a 29.6 rating in a lss to the Buccaneers. A week after beating the Lions, Rodgers had an 80.1 rating in a loss to the Cowboys. A week after beating the Lions, O'Sullivan had a 59.6 rating in a loss to the Saints. And none of those teams they faced -- the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Saints -- are in the upper half of the NFL in pass defense.

And while Orton showed some skills Sunday that appear to be universal -- his touch on short passes and deep balls, his decision-making, his poise in the pocket -- it was a near-optimum situation. Even the placid Ford Field crowd cooperated -- it might have been harder for Orton to concentrate at Soldier Field. The point is, he was operating in the most comfortable of environments. Can he make the same precise throws after he's been sacked two or three times and knocked down a few times? Can he hit Rashied Davis and Greg Olsen in stride when the defense is frothing, the crowd is jacked, the adrenaline's pumping and the game is on the line? Only then will we be able to say anything close to being definitive about Kyle Orton.

Beating the Lions -- Not exactly a litmus test

Matt Ryan Falcons        

                      vs. Lions:      9-13 161 1TD 0 INTs  137.0                 

                      week after:   13-33  158  0 TDs 2 INTs   29.6 vs. Bucs

Aaron Rodgers, Packers

                        vs. Lions      24-38   328  3 TDs 0 INTs  117.0      

                         week after:  22-39  290    0 TDs 0 INTs   80.1 vs. Cowboys

J.T. O'Sullivan, 49ers

                        vs. Lions                16-23    189    2 TDs 0 INTs   123.3       

                         week after:           18-36  257  1 TD 2 INTs   59.6 vs. Saints

A Little Perspective, Please

My good friend Dan Pompei of the Tribune gushed over Orton's performance in this column, comparing him -- for one day, anyway -- to Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. "Even some of his incompletions were artistic,'' Danny wrote. While his points were well-taken, the context was missing. That the Lions were the worst defense in the NFL or that Orton's performance was only average compared to quarterbacks who have faced the Lions this year was nowhere to be found.

But he did acknowledge that it was only one game. "It really doesn't mean much to be Peyton Manning for just a day,'' he wrote. "It's about week-in, week-out consistency."

Amen to that. How many Bears' quarterbacks have had career-days, only to crap out the following week? Too many.

• Rex Grossman had a career day against the Lions in 2006 (4 TDs, 0 INTs, 148.0 rating). The next week against the Vikings he dropped to 64.9 (but still threw the winning TD pass).
• Cade McNown had a career day against the Lions in 1999 (4 TDs, 2 INTs, 301 yards, 113.3). The next week against St. Louis he dropped to 55.4 (before leaving with an injury) and 51.3 in a full game against the Bucs after that.
• Jim Harbaugh had a career day against the Jets in 1991 (303 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 95.6). The next week at Buffalo he dropped to 54.8 (0 TDs, 1 INT). And the week after that vs. the Redskins he was 27.1 (0 TDs, 3 INTs).
• Vince Evans had a career day against the Packers in 1980 (316 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, a perfect 158.3). The next week at Cincinnati he dropped to 20.8 (132 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs).

Back-to-back 100-plus passer ratings are rare in Bears history. Grossman did it twice in 2006, when he "led" the Bears to the Super Bowl. Jim Miller had the best back-to-back performances in team history in 1999. He was 34-for-48 for 422 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT for a 109.9 rating. The following week at San Diego, Jim was 25-for-38 for 357 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs for a 104.8 rating. Alas, a week later Miller was suspended by the NFL for using a banned substance.

The moral of the story. When if comes to Bears quarterbacks, if it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

The Lions Effect

For what it's worth, the three teams that previously had beaten the Bears all lost the following week:

• Falcons      beat Lions 34-21 at home       Lost to Bucs 24-9 on the road
• Packers     beat Lions 48-25 at Detroit     Lost to Cowboys 27-16 at home
• 49ers         beat Lions 31-13 at home       Lost to Saints 31-17 at NO

The Bears play the Falcons in Atlanta at noon on Sunday. The Falcons are coming off back-to-back victories over the Chiefs (38-14) and Packers 27-24). They haven't won three straight games since 2005, when they beat the Saints (3-13), Jets (4-12) and, after a bye week, the Dolphins (9-7).

By the numbers, Orton is due for an average game this week. His passer rating is 87.6. The average rating against the Falcons this season is 87.3. In fact, Orton's numbers overall are almost identical to what the Falcons have allowed this season:

                     Att-Comp.  Yds.   Avg.     TD  INT  Rating

Kyle Orton      96-155      1,100  220.0      7   4     87.6

Falcons' D     101-166     1,108   221.6     9    5    87.3

On the other hand, the Falcons average is skewed by the Chiefs' Tyler Thigpen (23.8 rating). Without that, the average rating against them this season is 103.4, which would be the seventh worst in the NFL. Three of the QBs who have faced the Falcons this year had their season-best rating against them: Jon Kitna (103.3), Brian Griese (82.7) and Jake Delhomme (124.8). Aaron Rodgers also was over 100 (109.4, his third-best rating this season).

So while I agree that Orton is improving, I think Sunday's game will be a slightly better barometer of just how much he has "grown up" this season.